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  • Writer's pictureAlan Stevens - AWAH - Libertarianism, Freedom.

Global Warming Drives Levels of Atmospheric CO2

Changes in levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are driven by changes in global temperatures, not the other way round. So changes in CO2 cannot cause significant warming or cooling.

Yes, you heard that right. Everything is 180 degrees the opposite from what the powers that be want the populace to believe. This is another Awah.UK post seeking to develop and deploy a magic bullet to be fired into the scaly cranium of the Climate Change Hoax.

That beast must die. There has been a coordinated attempt to convince the world’s population that we are all the bad guys. Our desire to have prosperous, comfortable and well-travelled lives is supposed to be a threat to the planet. Therefore, people must be taxed and regulated, for the benefit of ‘elite’ state and state connected interests, naturally.

Our better natures are used against us to make us feel bad. We must accept 15-minute cities, as King Charles, the WEF and Sadiq Khan humourlessly propose. We must not fly, eat meat or drive internal combustion engine vehicles. All this is to ‘save the planet’. More likely these worthies simply want to control, exploit and, eventually, ‘cull’ the populace.

How would we feel if we knew that none of the above was true or necessary? Everyone would be able to look forward to increasingly comfortable lives, and the hope of still better for their children – without feeling remotely guilty, or kowtowing to establishment parasites.

What if the geological record showed that changes in levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) happen after changes in global temperature? People would realise that material changes in atmospheric CO2 cannot be causing global warming or cooling.

Well, that is what the record does show. Towards the end of his $100m revenue blockbuster ‘An Inconvenient Truth’, Al Gore holds up a graph showing estimated global temperatures and global atmospheric CO2 levels over the past few hundred million years. Yes, there is a correlation. High global temperatures are indeed associated with peaks in atmospheric CO2 levels. But the CO2 peaks slightly lagthe temperature peaks. This is also true over scales of hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of years in more recent timescales. It’s all really the other way round from what we are being led to believe.

Atmospheric C02 levels lag warming. Therefore, they cannot cause it.

Consider the recent past. The alarmists chose to start their narrative in the early 1800s deep in the Maunder Minimum ‘Little Ice Age’ when global temperatures were lower by roughly one degree centigrade than they are now. They were also lower than in the preceding Medieval and Roman Warm Periods. Obviously, if the alarmists had started in, say, 1000AD when temperatures were at least as high as now, they would have flopped immediately.

From the 1850s there was indeed a recovery in temperatures to current levels by the 1930s. Thus most of the recent temperature increase happened before human CO2 emissions really got going post World War II. Since the 1930s, atmospheric CO2 levels have continued to increase, but global temperatures have shown much less change. We are mostly seeing just a lagging CO2 response to a natural, cyclical increase in global temperatures.

Humanity may indeed have added a fair amount of ‘man-made’ C02 emissions since the 1930s but it did not create anything like the warming predicted by climate models. But now that we know that changes in CO2 cannot be a significant cause of warming or cooling, this is not a worry. Rather it is to be celebrated for the greening effect it is having on the climate, not least as a boon to food production.

How come atmospheric CO2 levels vary as a result of preceding changes in global temperatures? CO2 is a very small component of the Earth’s atmosphere, comprising only 0.04%. However, the oceans of the planet are full of a vast quantity of dissolved CO2. They are saturated with CO2. ‘Saturated’ means that the oceans at any given average temperature have no capacity to hold any more dissolved CO2 at all.

However, if the carrying capacity, or saturation level, of the oceans change, huge amounts of CO2 will be released into, or absorbed from, the atmosphere. As it happens, temperature changes in the oceans do change their ability to hold dissolved CO2. Counter intuitive as it may well seem, CO2 is more soluble in cold seawater than in warm. Therefore, when oceans warm in response to normal cyclical increases in overall planetary temperatures, a lot more CO2 is forced out of the oceans and into the atmosphere. Thus a rise in atmospheric CO2 levels appears in lagging correlation with warming.

A similar process operates in reverse. During the ice ages global atmospheric CO2 levels fell as cooling oceans reabsorbed atmospheric CO2. Indeed, the level of atmospheric CO2 fell to levels low enough possibly to threaten the ability of plant life – always relatively starved of vital CO2 - to survive at all.

For the science behind this, as well as many other aspects of the climate change debate, see Jeremy Nieboer’s ‘Climate All is Well, All will be Well’ - in particular figure 20 on page 27 showing atmospheric CO2 lagging annual temperature changes over the last fifty years. The book is available on Amazon. The good news is you really are not killing the planet.

In the earlier part of Nieboer’s book there is a discussion of another counter intuitive fact. It is true that the atmospheric CO2 we already have is helpfully keeping the planet warmer than would otherwise be the case. But further increments of CO2 won’t make much difference because the existing CO2 is already enough to plug the radiative gaps in the atmosphere. I encourage people to read the relevant section and form their own view.

I include below a link to a good slide show presentation by Ivor Cummins rehabilitating CO2 as the essential gas, and providing further background climate information:

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