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  • Writer's pictureAlan Stevens - AWAH - Libertarianism, Freedom.

It is Not About the Virus

We are in for more state orchestrated destruction in the West. It is being justified by the alleged need to counter the coronavirus pandemic. But that ended in May in northern temperate zones. The underlying problem is too many people parroting unviable ideas with no skin in the game.

Some good news to start the year. The overall number of deaths in America and in the World as a whole for 2020 will be much the same as last year. Historians scanning mortality records from the first half of the 21st century won’t be able to spot any extraordinary spike caused by the Coronavirus ‘pandemic’. That’s because there wasn’t one.

On the other hand, if lockdowns continue, world supply chains are disrupted and unrest develops, unmistakeable mortality spikes will appear in years to come, mainly but not necessarily only in the developing world. But they will not be caused by any virus.

Where excess overall deaths of around 10% have occurred, as in some European countries, they are within the normal range of fluctuations above and below long-term averages. Countries that had mild flu seasons in 2019, and therefore fewer deaths (from respiratory disease and overall) in 2019, had significantly more deaths from respiratory disease including ‘with-Covid-19’ in 2020. Countries that had severe flu seasons in the last couple of years, such as Norway, had few if any excess deaths this year.

In one sense there is very little to say about the latest coronavirus because everything has already been said in previous posts and by countless medics in the Great Barrington Declaration and elsewhere (see posts ‘Wrecking the West after the Pandemic’ December 9th 2020, ‘Coronavirus Cases are Garbage in Garbage Out (GIGO)’ November 5th 2020 and ‘Update on the Fading of the Coronavirus’ September 21st 2020).

It is clear, from the evidence assembled by bona fide scientists from the spring onwards, that governments in the West have worked together to make what appears to be a huge policy error in adopting policies such as lockdowns, mask mandates and social distancing.

Stanford University researcher Dr. John Ioannidis suggested right at the beginning in April, the likely coronavirus Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) would be 0.2% or less on average, which is basically standard flu mortality. This was indicated by the Princess Royal cruise ship outbreak. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently (and without publicity) confirmed that Dr Ioannidis was right all along. So - for people who are still believers in official narratives – WHO has officially confirmed what libertarians like me have been saying. It is basically the libertarians who have, again, shouldered the burden of countering state misinformation. We have indeed been 90% right and western governments 90% wrong.


Government measures, lock downs, masks, distancing etc., have been shown to make no positive difference to reported coronavirus mortality, despite their huge and rising costs. There is a list of studies on this in Ivor Cummins’ presentation (see link below):

Mortality from respiratory disease in 2020 has not been very different from flu seasons in some past years such as 2017 and 2018, and rather modest in the context of the past few decades. In Britain several years since the 1990s had higher excess deaths relative to population than 2020.

There isn’t a significant ‘Second Wave’ with a new respiratory virus, once herd immunity has been established. There will be some localities which didn’t achieve herd immunity before the summer. So there tends to be much smaller blips in succeeding winters as the new virus settles down to being just another of the other 80-200 respiratory viruses in the world (the numbers vary depending on whether variants are counted as different species). An earlier novel coronavirus in the 1880s produced precisely the same sequence. But then nobody would propose lockdowns. Nor I believe, would the population in Britain have stood for it.

Countries reporting significant excess deaths now are either mistaken or experiencing their ‘First Wave’. Recent ‘Second Wave’ Covid-19 deaths are mostly reclassified flu deaths. Falling reported flu deaths offset rising supposedly coronavirus deaths. As of the end of November, overall excess deaths had not risen much.

Overall Covid-19 IFR is officially confirmed to be 0.2% or less. For the core working population between 25 and 54 it is more like 0.05% or less. Therefore, there was never any reason whatsoever to close down active society. For example, as Contra Corner’s David Stockman explains, all causes deaths in the American 25-54 year-old population from January, as of 23rd December 2020, was 243 per hundred thousand, of which 48 were due to accidents and just 26 due to all respiratory diseases including Covid-19. The threat, and therefore the case for intervention in working people’s lives, was tiny.

The average age of death ‘with coronavirus’ is higher than average life expectancy. That’s because respiratory diseases tend to infect relatively fragile, elderly people with co-morbidities and failing immune systems. In Sweden, and several American states, approaching 75% of all deaths were in nursing homes.

Societies without lockdowns and mask mandates naturally have no lockdown-induced mortality from increased deaths-of-despair and state medical neglect. They have achieved herd immunity faster, thereby shortening the period during which the vulnerable are at risk. For these reasons, we could expect countries with severe lockdowns to begin to report both more Covid-19 and more non-Covid-19 deaths from now on.

I attach below a longer podcast, in which Ivor Cummins is interviewed on the Tom Woods Show. This is number 1798 in a series of daily podcasts made by the prolific, sensible and generally upbeat Tom Woods. It covers a lot interesting background on the virus. But Ivor does ask why governments are attacking their own societies, or at least their own tax bases, with damaging measures which don’t do any good to counter the equivalent of flu?

Lastly, I attach another video which is just several medical professionals of all kinds giving their views about the risk represented by new and untried vaccines which have been rushed out by Big Pharma to counter a disease to which we mostly have acquired immunity and wasn’t a threat to the most of the population anyway.


What does overall mortality data tell us about this? I have looked at the Public Health England weekly death registration data up until Christmas (see link below). In the week ending 24th April overall mortality in England was 1.92 (i.e. nearly twice) the expected number of deaths for that week. That indicates a true pandemic was happening - though not anything out of the ordinary run of past experience. Some of deaths belonged to a smaller spike in non-coronavirus deaths which must mostly be considered to be caused by the first lock-down.

And now? Weekly deaths in November went up to about 1.2 times the normal expected mortality. So that is not a pandemic. It looked like the little bump in mortality one might expect as the virus cleared out the last pockets, in particular ‘Up North’ where herd immunity had not been achieved by May. Plus, there must be a steady background toll of excess deaths caused by the effects of the first lock-downs. Daily excess deaths in November were 280 in second week. But by early December excess deaths had fallen back to around 1.1 of the longer-term average, or 160 per day. This could well represent the last coronavirus effects rolling over.

Then came the lock-down plans and Christmas. Excess deaths for the week before Christmas surged to 1.3 times the expected number of deaths. Given the great distress and upset that the prospect of new restrictions caused so many people, it seems unsurprising that that an additional 350 poor souls passed away daily that week, in an island occupied by over 60 million increasing stressed and demoralised people. I doubt many died of the virus.

Despite the muted uptick in excess deaths, we are now told that 1300 or more people a day are dying from Coronavirus, which implies that this is a true second wave. This is false. There aren’t enough excess deaths to make this plausible. At the same time deaths from flu, a major killer at this time of the year, have supposedly fallen greatly. This is also not plausible. Flu deaths are being reported as due to coronavirus. Thanks to the disaster of the PCR test, deaths of despair and medical neglect can be attributed to the coronavirus.

This amounts to misinformation, intentional or otherwise. It may be designed to conceal the disaster being inflicted by the state on its own society and indeed tax base. Others may hope that It will scare enough people into acting as Guinea Pigs for the Beta testing of profitable, but unnecessary and potentially harmful RNA vaccines. Or it could be a huge, cock-up by irresponsible politicians and officials.

Why, by the way, are vaccines unnecessary? Well, healthy people have got a 99.9+% chance of throwing off coronavirus. Most people already have T-Cell cross-immunity from previous encounters with other members of the coronavirus family, or they have acquired immunity from fighting off this virus. The vaccines are alleged to be, say, 70% effective and will inevitably have harmful side effects for some people, perhaps many since governments have allowed Big Pharma to skip the normal testing protocols. Could harmful side-effects from novel untried vaccines be as much as 1%. Nobody knows, certainly not governments. Not surprisingly public ‘vaccine hesitancy’ is growing, most notably in France.

The takeaway here is that increasingly excess deaths will comprise deaths from medical neglect of non-coronavirus cases and deaths of despair. Both are the state’s fault. You don’t need much of an increase in major killers like cancer, strokes and heart attacks to generate some thousands of excess monthly deaths in a population of nearly 70 million. Specially as booze sales have gone through the roof, at least in the United States, leading to suicide, domestic violence, and even vitamin B deficiency in the form of Beri Beri. Its symptoms unhappily mirror those of the coronavirus.

And vulnerability to infectious disease rises hugely if immune systems are undermined by vitamin D deficiency. That’s why we get ‘colds’ mainly when it’s cold, i.e. in the winter when there is not enough sun in northern temperate zones to maintain vitamin D levels. When you think how many people didn’t top up their tans this summer and stayed indoors, it is easy to predict more flu and other deaths. They may be classified as coronavirus victims.


Most people in the libertarian camp, and increasingly those of a traditional conservative disposition, find themselves unable to avoid feeling that the damage being inflicted on society and especially on small and medium size businesses (which, by the way, employ most people in the private sector) is being deliberately or at least recklessly inflicted.

There is indeed a substantial body of opinion amongst globalist elites against ‘populism’ as represented by Trump’s election and Brexit. They mean it is not OK for people, aka ‘deplorables’, to reject at the ballot box what the international establishment has decided is good for them. Smaller independent business people, e.g. ‘white van man’, are often the backbone of such pro-liberty causes, and so they are the globalists’ opponents.

I think it is also reasonable to suppose that big companies, such as the several hundred multinational corporations affiliated to the ‘Davos Crowd’ World Economic Forum (WEF), are indifferent to the destruction of smaller businesses. These companies are big political donors. They routinely lobby to have state power, in the form of new regulations, protect them from smaller competitors and so enable them to charge more for their products.

I think that the way in which most countries in the West have adopted a completely untried and hitherto universally rejected series of useless, arbitrary and totalitarian measures in response to just another coronavirus was planned by somebody. Most people don’t recognise how much government intervention in their lives is generated by international bureaucracies far above the national, or even EU, level. These are clustered around the UN, and include the WHO. THE WHO seems to have promoted lock-downs as preferred policy, or at least wished to try them out as a rather ghastly experiment.

When the UK locked-down, Parliament immediately passed repressive measures. These made it harder to stop deaths from being wrongly attributed to coronavirus. They gave Ofcom power to penalise mainstream media which didn’t toe the government line. This legislation indicates crisis pre-planning, innocent or not. Ever since, the mainstream media has followed the globalist line on the alleged seriousness of the new coronavirus.

Since then, too, we in Britain have lost, hopefully temporarily, much of our liberty. This has happened at the behest of an advisory group, ‘SAGE’, most of whose members come from institutions which have received generous funding from Bill Gates, who is also a primary donor to the WHO. Was it all just a globalist bureaucratic experiment, or maybe a Big Pharma scheme to panic governments into buying untried vaccines at great expense? Maybe both? For some reason the perfectly serviceable - according to the Lancet medical magazine - conventional vaccine available free from Russia never gets mentioned.

Klaus Schwab of the WEF has explained how the damage caused by the lockdowns and other failed policies has helped his project for a one world green-fascist totalitarianism (‘you will own nothing and you will be happy’). The damage means that central planners can propose to ‘build back better’. That doesn’t mean that the WEF planned this, any more than thousands of politicians who have grabbed as much power as possible while so many people remain trapped in misinformed mass hysteria.

I would like to know who organised the introduction the sinister, compulsory mask mandates at more or less the same time in the northern European summer to keep the fear going. The pandemic, such as it was, was over and no excess deaths were occurring – apart from a brief spike caused by a short heat wave. Yet someone in the supra-national, globalist system was clearly working towards imposing this current second round of controls.

For those who are concerned at our loss of every day freedoms, l attach a brief but bracing video from ex-UKIPer Geoffrey Bloom. As ever, salt to taste.


The underlying problem seems to me to be a problem of lack of redress. The whole idea of libertarianism is that if anybody attacks or threatens to attack another’s person or their justly acquired property then that person can go to law to seek redress. This is the Libertarian Non-Aggression Principle. It is the only fair and just arrangement in any society.

The problem is that many people have been bamboozled into accepting the unfair story that some people should be able to threaten, rob and bully others without any redress being possible against them. The offenders in question have merely to act in the name of an abstraction called ‘the state’. This claim is immoral. It is tantamount to saying that productive people are slaves, if slavery means being made to engage in unrewarded effort against one’s will.

Huge resources. For example state education budgets, are devoted to convincing people that it is normal that half the wealth produced by people engaged in voluntary co-operation should be siphoned off and spent on things that its producers wouldn’t want to spend it on.

Tradition and inertia count for a lot, especially when society appears to be becoming more prosperous. But the populations of the West have been losing ground this century. You can see it in Britain by noting declining electricity use. Now the coronavirus pandemic has made the contraction of economic activity clear and apparently permanent in the new normal.

One story supporting governments’ right to help themselves to other people’s property has been that people nevertheless can seek redress through the ballot box, if not the courts. This always has been something of an illusion. While it may work in a very small society, or a society comprising many small decentralised units, it is obviously not true of huge electorates ranging in the tens or hundreds of millions. And that’s before you consider that your vote is certainly wasted in the EU, for example, because you can’t vote for your rulers in Brussels anyway. In America trust in public elections is now also very low.

Politicians don’t do what their voters want them to do. They do what donors want, for example Big Pharma and the arms makers in the USA, and politically active billionaires like George Soros and Bill Gates. In that sense our democracies have long been corrupt.

Instead of popular participation in government, what we actually have is a massive proliferation of people who, in Nicolas Taleb’s phrase, are ‘Intellectuals Yet Idiots’ (IYIs). SAGE appears to be staffed by such people. No matter how mistaken they are, they get paid anyway. They have no ‘skin in the game’. During this crisis, millions of people whose living depends on taking resources from others have supported clearly damaging attacks on prosperity and liberty (the two are indissolubly linked). They think their virtue signalling and complacency will not come back to bite them.

So much wealth has been created in the West over the last three hundred years of the liberty-based economic boom called the Industrial Revolution. Many can now live comfortably whilst remaining clueless about business and unwilling to add much if any marketable value. They won’t even suffer the consequences of business contraction caused by government mistakes and meddling - they believe. This class includes bureaucrats, academics, mainstream media journalists, welfare dependents and politicians. It also includes vaccine makers who are being protected by the state against legal redress by the people on whom they are now trialling their untried vaccines.

A major contributor to the prevailing delusion is the exponentially increasing production of soon to be worthless FIAT currency. It seems to protect the privileged corporations and the state from the losses inflicted on people whose jobs cannot be done from home. But this is not the case. The whole structure, which is precariously balanced on the myth of state legal privilege, is tottering as people lose faith in politics and centralised solutions of all sorts.

the eventual elimination of so many IYIs from positions of leadership in society will be a key part of the true Great Reset – the one that the Davos Crowd globalists in the WEF are keen to avoid. Meanwhile let me finish with a quote from Melinda Gates. With her husband Bill, she is a model of (in principle very praiseworthy) private philanthropy, but she seems to be reporting a lack of understanding of how wealth creation through voluntary cooperation actually works.

“What did surprise us is we hadn’t really thought through the economic impacts.”

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Jan 13, 2021

Excellent summary of the situation. Anyone with a grounding in economics could see Lockdowns would lead to catastrophic suffering across all age groups and lead to a decline in living standards and a huge debt burden for our children. The Second Wave is really a planned Lockdown. It is an almost perfect situation for the totalitarians; a corrupted and manipulated broadcast media propagating fear and loathing to an audience, effectively trapped in their homes. There is a reason why nobody has remade 1984 and it rarely receives a mention in the Media and amongst the intelligentsia: it was a stark warning of authoritarian creep. George Orwell described a regime where citizens were forced to ingest State propaganda everyday through their…

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